What we can actually do
Six disciplines, applied in sequence to every opportunity. The same engines that support an investment decision run the asset afterwards, so a forecast is never quietly abandoned once the money is committed.
Subsurface evaluation
Volumetric and decline-based estimates carried side by side, with the disagreement between them reported rather than averaged away.
- Deterministic and probabilistic volumetrics to P90, P50 and P10
- Arps decline fitting — exponential, hyperbolic and harmonic — with terminal decline bounds
- Recovery factor ranges by drive mechanism, with improved-recovery uplift stated separately
- Production forecasting under facility, water handling and gas handling constraints
- Reserve categorisation to 1P, 2P and 3P with method and effective date recorded
Fiscal and commercial modelling
Contract terms modelled as drafted, not approximated by an effective tax rate.
- Concession regimes: royalty tiers, ring-fenced deductions, uplift and loss carry-forward
- Production sharing contracts including cost recovery ceilings and R-factor and gross-split profit sharing
- Service contracts with remuneration fees and capital recovery
- Government take reported as a marginal figure, not only an average
- A country library of indicative terms as a starting point — never as a substitute for the executed contract
Valuation and risk
A number with no range attached is an opinion. We publish both.
- Discounted cash flow with mid-year or year-end convention, stated on every result
- IRR reported as undefined where the cash flow has no sign change, rather than fabricated
- Monte Carlo simulation with correlated drivers, so the low case is not diversified away
- Tornado sensitivity ranking the drivers that actually move value
- Breakeven price solved through the fiscal model, because take is not linear in price
Capital structuring
Equity and debt sized against the profile the field can actually deliver.
- Debt sculpted to a target debt service coverage ratio rather than a flat amortisation
- Borrowing base sizing against risked cash flows
- Cost of equity built from CAPM with explicit country and asset-specific premia
- The full equity-versus-debt frontier, with covenant-breaching points excluded from the optimum
- Maximum bid price solved to a target return before a bid is submitted
Transaction execution
Every step of an acquisition, gated so that nothing important is skipped under deadline pressure.
- Stage-gated pipeline from sighting to completion with server-enforced blocking items
- Diligence checklists across subsurface, commercial, legal, HSE, tax and operations
- Data room review with structured extraction and a documented evidence trail
- Risk register with inherent and residual scoring, and mitigation effectiveness tested
- Decision memoranda that record what was known at the time of approval
Operations and development
Ownership means production, cost, safety and emissions — not a quarterly statement.
- Development planning by phase with capital, schedule and production contribution
- Daily and monthly production capture with allocation to working and net revenue interest
- Well and facility registers with intervention and workover history
- HSE event capture and reporting
- Joint interest billing and partner statements
Working with us
If you are selling an asset
We evaluate what is offered rather than what is described. Give us a data room and a reasonable window and you will get a considered answer — including a clear no, with the reasons stated, which is more useful to you than a slow maybe.
If you are providing capital
We approach equity and debt providers with the same model we used to make the decision ourselves, including the low case and the covenant headroom under it. Our capital counterparty register records each provider’s ticket size, target return, jurisdiction appetite, security requirements and exclusions, so we only approach people for whom the opportunity is genuinely a fit.
If you are a joint venture partner
Partners receive joint interest billing on a defined cycle, production allocation on the agreed basis, and access to the operational record for the asset they hold an interest in.